Crypto and bitcoin adoption — How far along are we really in this rally?

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While thinking about Bitcoin value one must ask what is the bitcoin adoption 2017 Bitcoin adoption. This is hard to calculate but let's try to elaborate a bit:. World population is currently about 7.

It would be nice if all of them were Bitcoin users but it's not possible for multiple reason, let's expand it more. Let's find some target group for potential Bitcoin users. First we cut some age groups. It might be a bit discriminatory but it's for modeling purpose. Furthermore, we cannot take all population as the base but only people with internet connection and we will get 3.

Now let's take a look at Bitcoin network. Many users might occupy multiple addresses so actually user count might be even 10 times smaller. Ok, let's bitcoin adoption 2017 there are 10 millions users. Then bitcoin addoption among target user group is about 0. If number of users is only 1 milion users then Bitcoin adoption is about 0. It's highly probable real state is somewhere bitcoin adoption 2017 these numbers.

In summary current Bitcoin adoption is between 0. So we have approximate Bitcoin adoption about 0. With this calculated adoption, real Bitcoin price is current price - about USD. Here is the projection. So when you in few years see prices like these, don't be that surprised, it's just bitcoin adoption 2017 while Bitcoin adoption 2017 is gaining bitcoin adoption 2017 adoption. And when you hear someone predicting these insane numbers, well, that person not be that insane. And these projections are very conservative because even many younger bitcoin adoption 2017 are adopting technologies and also Internet coverage is increasing in time and these calculations ignore those positive fact.

Adoption pace is also hard to determine except some approximation based on wallet counts and price. Wallet count is about 10x compare to 3 years ago and price is about twice.

Based on that we can estimate 5x growth of user-base in 3 years. It's also worth to mention that current price is undervalued to adoption pace or another explanation might be that three years ago we had big price bubble which bitcoin adoption 2017 also possible. It might take less due to various factors but I doubt it will be be slower than 7 years from now. To finish this article without counting, I'll give you two most crypto regret quotation I've heard many time through last years:.

One thing is suredon't worry about volatility that much, even in you're still among early adopters and maybe even among innovators. Things is, no matter when you join, you will always somehow profit if the project will not crash completely. But earlier you join, greater your profit might be and also greater your risk as well as we all here are still Bitcoin pioneers. May God give us fair monatery system and bless our investment decisions! Why would it not People are ust beginning to find real uses for bitcoin.

And buy as many mining contracts as you can afford! I dont think anyone really eexpected to be so sucesful for bitcoin ad altcoins even more so, this bull market just keeps going as if its reflecting how bitcoin rose 1 million percent in value, altcoins have a long way up and so does bitcoin!

Yes, the models look very optimistic although there is always some risk involved as always something can go wrong. So yeah, question now is not if but when it becomes bitcoin adoption 2017.

Another interesting thing is that even though it looks bitcoin adoption 2017 bit like pozi scheem due to doubling prices, etc. Adoption curve is not speaking about price decline but only about, well, adoption. Real looser might be financial institutions that will not adapt, but I don't think they are that stupid and I guess they are already slowly buying.

Right now I'm really wondering if it goes smoothly up bitcoin adoption 2017 if there will be some big shocks. I would be surprised if old system accepts this shift of paradigm without serious fight. Major elites always fought for control over money supply. They might like Ripple because it only increase their profits and doesn't take power from them but they still hates Bitcoin and most of alt crypto projects.

I think bitcoin is already near peak adoption. Bitcoin adoption 2017 is because there bitcoin adoption 2017 so many competing cryptos bitcoin adoption 2017 the market. I have never bought bitcoin but I have 3 crypto currencies including steem. The reason bitcoin was so great was because it was liquid, a feature now shared by many bitcoin adoption 2017.

If you look at market capitalization bitcoin is losing marketcap steadily to other cryptos. Nevertheless, the supply demand fundamentals should keep the bitcoin price high measured in USD for the foreseeable future. Still you will get bitcoin adoption 2017 of thousands USD per Bitcoin for full adoption. Target group is about 2 billion users similar to Facebook users. So adoption bitcoin adoption 2017 is still very low and everyone here is early adopter bitcoin adoption 2017 best.

This is just a beginning for all crypto projects, Bitcoin included. It can take years to take it to mainstream. Due to the fast pace of technology I think 10 years is more than enough time for technology to reach bitcoin adoption 2017 middle of its product life cycle.

Bitcoin was successful in that it opened the door for other crytpocurrencies. The iphone 1 was very successful but the pace of technology bitcoin adoption 2017 competition made it obsolete within a year or two. If you are talking about cryptocurrency as a group then I agree we havent even seen the beginning of adoption bitcoin adoption 2017. But just as the iphone1 was relegated to the dustbin of history I think bitcoin will be too within 20 years but there is no doubt that supply and demand will support its price and purchasing power.

I agree with you that bitcoin has the potential to go much higher but its growth and adaption will certainly be affected by other coins. Actually, steem was the first cryptocurrency I ever owned. Bitcoin has no platform like steem bitcoin adoption 2017 generate demand. Just being a currency is no bitcoin adoption 2017 an advantage bitcoin adoption 2017 other currencies offer specific advantages besides just facilitating transactions.

Thanks for your reply and I believe there is a lot of logic in what you are saying. The global market is big enough for a huge growth in bitcoin as well as other currencies.

Also keep in mind that the reason Facebook has so many users is because it is a CIA project inqtel with government backing. In bitcoin adoption 2017, Bitcoin and other cryptos have are the enemies of the central bank controlled governments. For example first household workstation was available in and when it become mainstream?

Also during some phases there is slower adoption, during another faster. Yes, adoption is still very low. Your example with iPhone is valid for hardware but not for software, Bitcoin is evolving in time and when SigWit is enabled, it will move forward bitcoin adoption 2017 lot.

So it might never be obsolete. Of course there will be some more agile projects as Steem and another. But it's good we have so many crypto projects, it will move all the sector forward a lot.

Bitcon, same as Steem has actually lot of demand factors but not for everyone, as Steem is also not useful for everyone. Currently Bitcoin has lower inflation that Steem, therefore is better to store value, with Bitcoin you can directly utilize many interesting services like purse. So although it has no integrated platform inside, there are multiple useful services and utilizations primarily built around Bitcoin.

You are right, old world with most of its elites doesn't like crypto and Bitcoin because it's disrupting world system which was and still is source of their profit and power. They tried FUD and repression first, during next phase they might try to buy it all and manipulate like gold and silverwho knows.

But it will be hard for them. Once it's manipulated, community can build another project that is not owned by them and move on there. I am now following. How fast have wallets grown I imagine bitcoin adoption 2017 per person would be somewhat stable. Wallet numbers are growing about 2. Conservative estimation our real users might be about million users I guess.

But it's better to put it low because there might be users who try it, leave and not return. All bitcoin adoption 2017 this affects demand. It's not my goal to calculate precise number IMHO it's not even possiblebut rather to calculate some ranges in which all of this is moving and identify possible underpricing or bubble and to show whether there is still space to grow or not. This post has been ranked within the top 80 most undervalued posts in the second half of May See the full rankings and details in The Daily Tribune: May 12 - Part II.

You can also read about some of our methodology, data analysis and technical details in our initial post. If you are the author and would prefer not to receive these comments, simply bitcoin adoption 2017 "Stop" to this comment. An important thing to remember is that many wallets bitcoin adoption 2017 a new address with bitcoin adoption 2017 transaction.

There are exponentially more addresses out there than there are users. Adoption has so much room to grow! It is unfathomable how valuable bitcoin will be in a couple of years even. Just a few short months after this post. How many people touched Bitcoin up to and what is the current adoption pace?

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Neil Haran Contributor Neil Haran is an angel investor and cryptocurrency advocate. There are many reasons why, but one of the largest barriers to mainstream adoption is the price volatility of cryptocurrencies. So the question is, why do the prices change so much in the first place? It comes down to supply and demand: Most cryptocurrencies have only a fixed total supply, and yet demand for the coins is uncertain and constantly fluctuating thanks to speculation. The need for stability is not unique to cryptocurrency.

Any currency needs to be stable in order to be used as a trusted medium of exchange. The more that prices rise and fall, the more ordinary people will shy away from using the coins for everyday transactions.

Whether they hoard the coins in the hope that prices will rise sharply soon, or they avoid using them altogether for fear that they will lose all of their value, people are not yet accustomed to seeing cryptocurrency as real money. Worse, the unpredictability of prices wreaks havoc on regular money services, like remittance, currency conversion, and the use of ATMs.

In order to use cryptocurrencies, businesses have to hedge their risks by charging exorbitant fees. Bitcoin ATMs can charge up to 15 percent just to convert to fiat currency. This totally defeats the original purpose of cryptocurrencies, which was to offer a cheaper and more flexible alternative to other payment methods.

With no advantage over government-printed money, why would the average person use them? Price volatility has plagued Bitcoin from nearly the beginning. With what we have learned over the better part of a decade, why have cryptocurrencies still not solved this problem of fluctuating prices? Human nature gets in the way, as it tends to do. It is difficult to stabilize prices in a world where people would rather play the market and get instant gratification by re-selling their coins for as high a price as possible.

When building a cryptocurrency from scratch, you first need a solid foundation. From this foundation, the currency can grow and self-correct as it develops. The first piece of the puzzle is being able to reliably predict demand.

Having a way to gauge real demand for a coin would go a long way in fixing this problem. This is the core of the problem: With so much speculation, the price for the cryptocurrency will not reflect its actual usage and demand.

It simply becomes a bubble that is constantly on the verge of bursting, and no one wants to risk their hard-earned money on that. Traditionally, the solution to the problem of stability was to have a central bank. The government could then alter the money supply at will, for example by causing inflation.

They need to do this without compromising the freedom of the users and without resorting to inflation. What if there was a currency that encouraged people to cooperate? What if people were incentivized by a spirit of growth, rather than of greed?

Under the ideal model, a network of cooperative businesses and services would coordinate with each other as a single unit. The coin would be shaped democratically by this co-op shaped not controlled. Every user would have incentives to help the network grow as a whole, and the use of a blockchain would help make the process be fair.

Instead of rampant online speculation, users would visit local exchanges to buy and sell the currency. Having to look other users in the eye can make a world of difference. Face-to-face exchanges at trusted locations means that the sale of a coin can be more easily limited, and this can act as a throttle to gauge demand.

Having stable locations to exchange the currency also creates consistency. It removes the guessing game of wondering where you can buy and sell your coin. The advantages are not just purely economic, either.

Unethical or illegal businesses will tend to be voted out of cooperative networks with face-to-face exchanges, however, which can go a long way toward legitimizing the currency. It would still be possible to run such enterprises of course, but they would never be part of the co-op. This kind of approach can only work if there are dramatically more local exchanges than online exchanges. It would mean that the local exchanges would dictate the pricing of the currency.

Marketing is a powerful force, and as such it needs to be handled with care. On the one hand, founders naturally want to attract investment early on. This will raise the price of the coin and help pay for infrastructure, as well as boost the growth of the coin. On the other hand, historically the earliest investors in cryptocurrency have been extremely low quality — they are the speculators who doom the currency in the long run and scare away mainstream users.

With speculation, capital infusion is needed to keep the currency stable, which can be a significant task. Take Bitcoin for instance: What will the end game be? However, there are a handful of interesting coins that have invested in strategies that nudge them in a specific direction. This is a strategy that is centered around creating value with unique products and services that are associated with the currency. In this way, you could say that the currency is backed by something that people actually want.

For example, the MaidSafe network incentivizes users to provide something of value to the network storage space , and offers the use of apps and services in return for coins. This naturally leads to better cooperation. People want to create value and channel their efforts toward the growth of the currency that they have in common. Similar to the central app strategy, this method establishes a user base first, and then introduces the currency.

Bitshares and its array of associated startups is a good example of this. Several networks with varying currencies — Steemit and their STEEM currency, Peerplays and their tokens, for instance — slowly built their user base and value exchange system, and now they plan to adopt a central currency with Bitshares.

This allows them to create a stable base first before pooling their resources. Finally, the best way for a currency to create that all-important foundation of true users is through bootstrapping.

Just like a business startup, a currency like this would need a user base that believed in a common mission. It would need everyone in the system to be able to see the inherent value of the coin, and to understand that it could be worth much more than the value it is traded for in its early stages.

An example of one of these grassroots efforts is FairCoin. FairCoin focused from the beginning on building infrastructure for everyday users. Because of the strong relationships among members of the co-op, they can have thousands of ATMs, debit cards and exchanges that make mass adoption much easier. An approach like this allows the currency to slowly build itself in the background without the need for a spotlight and the barrage of speculators that come with it. This offers the huge advantage of stability from the very beginning, though it does pose the problem that FairCoin has to bootstrap with less capital than most coins.

In other words, FairCoin traded the excitement of volatility and greed for a quiet, long-term stability. The only problem is that people might not notice! Drama catches the human eye, after all. This makes the price even more uncertain, and uncertainty is like poison for a currency. On the other hand, if you have a large community and a co-op on top of an immutable blockchain, then a hard fork is extremely unlikely — and unnecessary. Cryptocurrencies like MaidSafe, Bitshares and FairCoin all represent solid communities that are incentivized to cooperate instead of speculate.

This means that the coin can be worth more than its market price; it has a high inherent value within the system itself. This makes it so that users have very little reason to defect from the existing community. A hard fork would mean giving up many benefits of the co-op, so people stay loyal to the original vision of the currency. They are not a miracle of the market — they require a carefully constructed foundation. A stable currency needs a stable ecosystem first.

Some of those users will be interested in the actual currency, but others will be undesirable speculators that just leech off the system. A currency needs to grow with the people, not past them. Look at the state of Bitcoin and its inflated prices. The everyday person can no longer either mine the coin or expect to use the coin in everyday transactions without high fees or risk.

It has been given up to the speculators. With a truly stable currency, on the other hand, you can have currency conversion, remittance, ATM withdrawals and other financial services with lower fees than fiat systems. In other words, it can be used as intended — as money. This is what will ultimately attract a mainstream audience and will actually incentivize them to make the switch to cryptocurrency.

Neil Haran is an angel investor and cryptocurrency advocate.